Malaria modeling
Simulation models to project intervention impact in populations.
Infectious disease epidemiologist
Manuela Runge, PhD
Malaria modeling, subnational intervention planning, and data-driven public health strategy.
Expertise
What I work on
Subnational tailoring
District-level prioritization of malaria interventions using local data.
Vaccine-preventable diseases
Applied epidemiology for global health consulting projects.
Data analysis & visualization
From data management to maps, reports, and decision support.
International experience
DE Germany CH Switzerland TZ Tanzania US United States
Research
Publications
COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Studies against Symptomatic and Severe Outcomes during the Omicron Period in Four Countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region
Vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies conducted between June 2021 and August 2023 in Egypt, Pakistan, Iran, and Jordan assessed the real-world performance of COVID…
Subnational tailoring of malaria interventions to prioritize the malaria response in Guinea
Guinea’s national malaria program employed a subnational tailoring (SNT) approach to optimize its 2024-2026 operational plan by using local data to prioritize m…
Application of mathematical modelling to inform national malaria intervention planning in Nigeria
An agent-based model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission was used to simulate malaria morbidity and mortality in Nigeria’s 774 LGAs under four possible inter…
Perennial malaria chemoprevention with and without malaria vaccination to reduce malaria burden in young children: a modelling analysis
Using an individual-based mathematical model, allowed to address uncertainties about scheduling PMC alone or in combination with malaria vaccines like RTS,S to …
Design of effective outpatient sentinel surveillance for COVID-19 decision-making: a modeling study
We used a stochastic, compartmental transmission model to evaluate the performance of various surveillance indicators at reliably triggering an alarm in respons…
Modeling robust COVID-19 intensive care unit occupancy thresholds for imposing mitigation to prevent exceeding capacities
Systematic methods for identifying relatively under-tested geographic regions and demographic groups may enable policymakers to regularly monitor and evaluate t…
Sub-national tailoring of malaria interventions in Mainland Tanzania: simulation of the impact of strata-specific intervention combinations using modelling
This publication presents and discusses how modeling was applied to simulate intervention per malaria risk strata in Mainland Tanzania. It complements several …
Evaluation of different deployment strategies for larviciding to control malaria: a simulation study
A malaria transmission model, OpenMalaria, was used to simulate varying larviciding strategies and their impact on host-seeking mosquito densities, entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and malaria prevalence. Variations in coverage, duration, frequency, and timing of larviciding were simulated for three transmission intensities and four transmission seasonality profiles
Geographic and demographic heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic testing in Illinois, USA, March to December 2020
Systematic methods for identifying relatively under-tested geographic regions and demographic groups may enable policymakers to regularly monitor and evaluate t…
Beyond national indicators: adapting the Demographic and Health Surveys' sampling strategies and questions to better inform subnational malaria intervention policy
The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program is a critical data source for understanding subnational malaria prevalence and intervention coverage, which are…
The potential of pregnant women as a sentinel population for malaria surveillance
Pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) have been proposed as a pragmatic sentinel population for malaria surveillance. However, the representativeness of…
Identifying the measurements required to estimate rates of COVID-19 transmission, infection, and detection, using variational data assimilation
This preprint demonstrates the ability of statistical data assimilation to identify the measurements required for accurate state and parameter estimation in an …
Sub-national stratification of malaria risk in mainland Tanzania: a simplified assembly of survey and routine data
This case study article describes available routine data and survey data at the district level in Tanzania and its use for sub-national stratification. [Downloa…
Applied mathematical modelling to inform national malaria policies, strategies and operations in Tanzania
This case study article describes the long-term use of modelling in close collaboration with the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) in Tanzania, the chal…
Simulating the council-specific impact of anti-malaria interventions: a tool to support malaria strategic planning in Tanzania
The OpenMalaria model of malaria dynamics was calibrated for all 184 councils in mainland Tanzania using data from malaria indicator surveys, school parasitaemi…
Nationwide school malaria parasitaemia survey in public primary schools, the United Republic of Tanzania
A nationwide, school, malaria survey was implemented to assess the risk factors of malaria prevalence and bed net use among primary school children in mainland …
Presentations
Talks
Comparative Analysis of Individual-Based Malaria Models: Characterizing model behavior for enhanced confidence in model-informed decision making
MultiMalModPy - A novel programmatic framework for running three individual-based malaria tranmission models
Moxidectin development and business case scenarios
Using modeling to assess the operational effectiveness of implementing pragmatic Perennial Malaria Chemoprevention in Osun State, Southern Nigeria
Combined impact of Perennial Malaria Chemopreven on and RTS,S to reduce malaria in young children: a modeling analysis
Simulated impact of perennial malaria chemoprevention and vaccination to reduce malaria during early childhood
Predicting the epidemiological impact of large-scale implementation of intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) in Southern Nigeria
Predicting intensive care unit occupancy and thresholds for action to avoid exceeding capacities in Chicago, Illinois
Estimating the potential effectiveness of wide-scale implementation of intermittent preventive therapy in infants in Southern Nigeria
Modelling the role of An. funestus in an east-african setting where insecticide-treated nets are already widely used but malaria transmission persists
Using country-specific modelling of malaria interventions for national strategic planning
Modeling the impact of different larviciding deployment regimens to inform strategic planning
Varying impact of malaria interventions at district level-implications of a mathematical model for strategic planning
A nationwide school malaria parasitaemia survey for routine surveillance at district level in Mainland Tanzania
Portfolio
Selected projects
COVID-19 modelling in Illinois
Development of transmission model for COVID-19 for each region in Illinois <br/><img src='/images/SEIR_base_model_structure.png'>
School Malaria Parasitaemia Survey
During my master studies I spent 6 months in Tanzania to support data collection and analysis of the school survey, conducted by the National Malaria Control Programme. <br/><img src='/images/20150521_125337.jpg'>
Volunteer at MESA's correspondent program
During the MIM 2018, BioMalPar 2020, and ASTMH 2020 Manuela Runge reported from the conference as MESA correspondent (image from: [mesamalaria.org/resource-hub/mim-2018-day-1](https://mesamalaria.org/resource-hub/mim-2018-day-1)) (<br/><img src='/images/2020-12-13 07_09_17-MIM 2018_ Day 1 _ Mesa.png'>
Modelling larviciding deployment strategies
Objectives of this project were to simulate varying larviciding deployment strategies and to determine coverage thresholds for targeting larvae vs adult mosquitoes.<br/><img src='/images/IMAG5631.jpg'>
Modelling to support strategic planning in Mainland Tanzania
This project describes the use of mathematical modelling for planning of malaria intervention strategies embedded within the long-term collaboration between the Health Intervention Unit's NETCELL project and the Infectious Disease Modelling Unit at the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute and the National Malaria Control Programme in Tanzania and other partners. <br/><img src='/images/IMAG1448.jpg'>
School Malaria Parasitaemia Survey
During my master studies I spent 6 months in Tanzania to support data collection and analysis of the school survey, conducted by the National Malaria Control Programme. <br/><img src='/images/20150521_125337.jpg'>
Multi-Malaria-Modeling framework (MultiMalModPy)
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School Malaria Parasitaemia Survey
During my master studies I spent 6 months in Tanzania to support data collection and analysis of the school survey, conducted by the National Malaria Control Programme. <br/><img src='/images/20150521_125337.jpg'>
Health is not everything but without health everything is nothing
Arthur Schopenhauer, 1788–1860